BERRY'S BROTHER

Unitree Robotics reportedly offered nearly 100 million yuan (about HK$109 million, based on an indicative mid-market rate of 1.09 yuan to the Hong Kong dollar) to secure a slot at the 2026 Year of the Horse Spring Festival Gala, according to bidding figures disclosed by industry insiders. The one-off marketing expense would exceed half of the company's research and development spending for the same period. Unitree reported revenue of 1.699 billion yuan for 2025, with R&D expenses accounting for just 7.73 per cent of revenue. That implies annual R&D spending of about 130 million yuan, or roughly 65 million yuan over six months. As a number of humanoid robot companies valued at more than 20 billion yuan (about HK$21.8 billion) rush towards the capital markets, an intense debate over the reality of their commercialisation is unfolding at the gateway to a public listing.

It is worth noting that Unitree is no longer merely “in the queue”. The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market on August 19, 2026 — not the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its share price briefly surged 629 per cent on the first trading day, sending its market capitalisation to as much as 444.9 billion yuan. It then plunged to just over 220 billion yuan in the following 10-plus days, wiping out nearly half its market value. Citing sources, technology publication The Information reported that the extreme volatility on Unitree's first trading day, together with a rush to imitate the company across the industry, had prompted the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue informal “window guidance” to several investment banks. The guidance reportedly requires humanoid robot companies seeking listings to demonstrate either sustainable cash-generating ability or genuine technological breakthroughs before they can clear the listing review.

Revenue illusion propped up by research and demonstrations

In documents responding to an enquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange — not the Hong Kong Stock Exchange — Unitree disclosed that its humanoid robot business generated revenue of 595 million yuan (about HK$650 million) in the first three quarters of 2025. As much as 73.6 per cent came from research and education customers, while commercial consumer applications accounted for 17.39 per cent. Industry applications, mainly involving guided tours and inspections, made up just 9.01 per cent. Revenue genuinely linked to industrial scenarios such as smart manufacturing and inspection accounted for the equivalent of only about 2.6 per cent.

Another humanoid robot company, Leju Robot, is pursuing a listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board, rather than in Hong Kong. The Shenzhen exchange accepted its ChiNext listing application on May 19 this year, with the company seeking to raise 2.6 billion yuan (about HK$2.8 billion). Its prospectus shows that revenue related to data-collection centres accounted for 44.94 per cent of the application-scene revenue generated by its flagship Kuavo series, overtaking research and education to become its largest source of revenue in 2025.

This concentration of shipments among universities, research institutions and data-collection centres exposes the industry's broader failure to achieve product-market fit. Fu Zhilong, a partner at Yunxiu Capital, has said that the bottlenecks lie in whether companies can produce reliably at scale and low cost, and whether their sales loop can work in real-world physical-labour scenarios. (The original source of the remarks could not be independently located; the editorial department is advised to verify the specific interview link.) Globally, logistics and warehousing and precision manufacturing are generally viewed as the ultimate arenas for humanoid robots. But embodied-intelligence foundation-model technology remains far from mature, while robots are still weak at dealing with unstructured environments.

Dispute over circular trading through data-collection centres

Since the beginning of this year, accusations of “circular trading through data-collection centres” have intensified in the embodied-intelligence sector. Shao Tianlan, founder of Mech-Mind Robotics, said bluntly on social media that some “highly valued, famous companies in Beijing and Shanghai that have appeared on the Spring Festival Gala” were using “data-collection centres” extensively, along with related-party transactions involving local governments, investors and suppliers, to create false and unsustainable revenue. One analysis said the allegations were aimed in part at Galaxy General.

Under the model, upstream data-collection organisations first buy complete robots from robotics companies to capture motion data. They then package and sell the resulting datasets to the same group of robotics companies as training material for the next generation of embodied-intelligence models. Although funds circulate up and down the industrial chain, inflating reported revenue, no independent external customer is actually created. More than 100 data-collection centres were reportedly established discreetly across mainland China over the past year, covering 23 provinces. But as autumn 2026 approached, signs of strain had begun to emerge. Reports said a data-training centre in Beijing's Shijingshan district, once described as the largest of its kind in the country, had sharply scaled back operations in recent months.

Spring Festival Gala effect and listing progress

Against this backdrop, companies are spending heavily to secure a place on the Spring Festival Gala, effectively racing for traffic and a potential route back to capital. Four humanoid robot companies ultimately appeared at the 2026 Year of the Horse gala: Unitree Robotics, Songyan Power, MagicLab and Galaxy General. Songyan Power focuses on companion robots for household consumer applications. It announced in March that it had completed cumulative Series B financing of nearly 1 billion yuan (about HK$1.1 billion), led by CATL-affiliated ChenDao Capital, and had also completed its shareholding restructuring.

As for Galaxy General, which the original article said was not selected for the gala before being reported to have secretly filed an application with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the position needs clarification. Market reports in December last year suggested that it was preparing for a Hong Kong listing and could submit its application as early as January this year. The company, however, formally denied both claims at the time — that it was pursuing a Hong Kong listing and that it would submit an application in January. The company subsequently completed its shareholding restructuring and management reorganisation, keeping listing rumours alive. But as of now, there has been no official confirmation that it has formally submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, whether publicly or confidentially. What can be confirmed is that Galaxy General completed a 2.5 billion yuan (about HK$2.7 billion) financing round in March this year. All the investors were state-level funds, central state-owned enterprises or local state-owned capital, setting a mainland record for a single embodied-intelligence financing round.

Looking at its peers, UBTECH is currently the only humanoid robot company genuinely listed in Hong Kong. It listed in December 2023 under stock code 9880.HK. Both at the time of its listing and for years afterwards, its core revenue pillar was its education-focused intelligent robot and solutions business, rather than complete humanoid robots. The same underlying issue is now at the heart of the commercialisation questions facing Unitree and Leju.

(An early investor previously warned in an interview with a financial publication that the industry could face a brutal shake-out. The specific remarks and media source should be further verified by the editorial department before being added as a citation.)