Lillian SUWANRUMPHA
Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh (R) speaks alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (L) during a "fireside chat" at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026.

Federal Reserve chairman Wosh on Friday (October 16) discussed the economy with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok, where he was attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. He gave no indication of his stance on the October rate decision, but markets repriced their expectations anyway: futures markets put the probability of another rate increase at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting at below 15%, down from about 27% before his remarks.

It was Wosh's last public appearance before the blackout period ahead of the policy meeting. US inflation data came in hotter than expected this week, with consumer prices rising 3.7% year on year in September and producer prices increasing 1.3% month on month, briefly strengthening bets on a rate hike. Wosh gave no hawkish signal, prompting traders to unwind some of those positions. Nasdaq 100 futures turned higher, while the US dollar weakened.

'No preview' and no indication

Wosh reiterated that the Federal Reserve would achieve price stability, saying it had "pulled back some easing" about a month earlier, in September. He described developments since September as broadly in line with expectations. On future decisions, he said: "I'm not going to preview the outcome of the meeting, and I don't think it's appropriate now to say what the remaining meetings this year might do."

Derek Tang, an economist at a monetary policy analysis firm, said Wosh was clearly unwilling to offer any comments that the market could use as a hawkish signal. In other words, the market heard "no hawkish signal", rather than Wosh turning dovish. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Federal Reserve to pause in October and deliver its "final" rate hike of the year in December.

September hike was only recent move

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25 percentage point in September, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4%. It was the first rate increase since July 2023 and was unanimously approved by all 12 voting officials. The dot plot released at the same meeting showed that 16 of the 18 officials who submitted projections expected at least one more hike before the end of the year. Markets currently broadly expect a 0.25 percentage-point increase in December.

AI: Boosting demand first, then lowering supply costs

Wosh devoted much of the discussion to artificial intelligence (AI). He said AI "clearly hits the demand side of the economy first, and then hits the supply side". Over the medium term, AI represents a positive supply shock, but it is currently pushing up aggregate demand, making policy judgements more complicated. He said he was approaching the technology "with caution and responsibility".

He also disclosed that the Federal Reserve's "productivity and employment" working group would hold an in-person hearing in the San Francisco Bay Area next month. The group is co-chaired by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and others, and its formation was announced by the Federal Reserve in July.

The next key event is the October 27-28 policy meeting. Markets are currently betting on a pause, but Wosh has repeatedly made clear that he will not disclose the policy direction in advance. The outcome will still depend on data released before the meeting.