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Chief Executive John Lee will first present Hong Kong's inaugural five-year plan in the Legislative Council at 11am tomorrow (16th), before delivering his new Policy Address. The Federation of Public Housing Estates, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and the G19 have spent months waiting for one sentence: that the Tenant Purchase Scheme will be relaunched. The answer has in fact already been given. Housing Secretary Rosanna Law earlier said publicly that the government was "open-minded but cautious" about reviving the scheme and had begun an in-depth study. Read together, those four words point quite clearly to the likely outcome tomorrow: no final decision, but a timetable.

The more important wording lies in how the study itself has been defined. Reports citing sources said the study on the Tenant Purchase Scheme had been put out to tender and could produce results as early as this year. But the study is not being conducted for the purpose of launching the scheme; any decision will depend on its findings. In other words, the government has not even concluded whether the scheme is worthwhile, while the market is already discussing how far it could go.

On the market side, UBS Asia-Pacific head of real estate research John Lam expects the ratio of for-sale to rental public housing units in Hong Kong to rise from the current 30:70 to as much as 50:50. He also believes the government may use the Policy Address to relaunch the Tenant Purchase Scheme, arguing that such a measure could improve government revenue but hurt developers whose businesses focus on entry-level properties. That is an analyst's estimate, not an official figure or an implemented policy. It is also important to distinguish between the two sets of figures. When Law previously discussed raising the "60:40 ratio" to "50:50", she was referring to the balance between subsidised-sale flats — including Home Ownership Scheme and Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme flats — and public rental housing. That is not the same as UBS's ratio of for-sale to rental public housing, and the two should not be conflated.

The underlying reality may not support a major move either. Legislative Council figures as at March this year show that the 39 Tenant Purchase Scheme estates had about 184,400 flats available for sale, of which roughly 84 per cent had been sold, leaving about 30,000 unsold. Law cited a Housing Authority survey showing that about 54 per cent of tenants in Tenant Purchase Scheme estates said they would not consider buying their current flats, while another 34 per cent had not made up their minds. Even if the flats were sold at discounts of 17 to 22 per cent, more than half of those who would not consider buying said they could not afford the mortgage repayments; nearly 40 per cent cited their age and 20 per cent said the buildings were too old. The figures suggest that even if the government does relaunch the scheme, the proportion of tenants willing to buy will itself be limited.

Political pressure will not stop there. The Federation of Public Housing Estates, the Democratic Alliance for Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and the G19 have continued in recent months to demand a timetable for the scheme's revival. Some lawmakers have proposed setting prices at 10 to 20 per cent of market value, capped at HK$1 million. But these are political proposals, not government commitments, and the two may not amount to the same thing in tomorrow's document.

Law herself has been clear: pricing, timing and ownership management "still require further study". The government will not sell assets at a steep discount, and is also concerned that large-scale sales of public housing could shift control over housing supply towards the private market. Those remarks are a better guide than any forecast to what is likely to appear tomorrow — an update on a study that is "under way", rather than a timetable for relaunching the scheme. Lawmakers will probably press the government on when the study will be completed during the Legislative Council's question-and-answer session on the 17th. That will be the next point at which expectations can be recalibrated.