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Hong Kong September export volumes rise 36%, but value jumps 65% — why the gap?

The Census and Statistics Department said on November 12 that Hong Kong's overall export volume rose 36.1% year on year in September 2026, while import volume increased 30.7%. In the first three quarters, export volume rose 29.9% year on year and import volume increased 30.1%.

But volume tells only half the story. Value data released by the department on October 28 showed that overall export value surged 64.9% year on year to HK$762.6 billion in September, the fastest monthly increase in more than 40 years. Import value rose 57.8% to HK$808.9 billion. The gap between the two sets of figures was driven by prices: export prices rose 20.3% year on year in September, while import prices increased 19.7%. In other words, a sizeable portion of Hong Kong's export growth came from higher unit prices, rather than entirely from an increase in the actual volume of shipments.

Not a rebound, but a continuation

September's growth was not a rebound from a trough. Export value had recorded double-digit year-on-year growth for 20 consecutive months by September. The comparison base was not particularly low either: export value had already risen 16.1% year on year in September 2025, while export volume increased 13.8%.

AI-related electronics the main engine

A government spokesman attributed the sharp rise in September exports to persistently exceptionally strong demand for AI-related electronic products. By destination, export volume to Taiwan rose 120.5% year on year in September, followed by increases of 90.1% to the United States, 36.8% to Vietnam and 34.7% to the mainland. On the import side, volumes from South Korea rose 118.2% and those from Vietnam increased 73.6%. By end use, export volume of capital goods rose 51.0%.

Prices also reflected the chip cycle. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that the mainland's integrated-circuit export volume rose only about 1% year on year in September, while export value jumped 136% amid a shortage of memory chips driven by AI infrastructure demand.

Moving in step with the mainland, not diverging

Mainland exports were also strong over the same period. In US dollar terms, mainland exports rose 36.3% year on year in September, the fastest growth since February, while imports increased 31.0%. Hong Kong and mainland exports were moving in the same direction, driven in both cases by global demand for technology and AI.

Quarter-on-quarter momentum slows

After seasonal adjustment, export volume rose 1.8% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, while import volume increased 1.0%. Although both remained in positive territory, the pace slowed noticeably from the second quarter, when export volume rose 6.6% quarter on quarter and imports increased 2.2%.

Sectors benefiting

Volume growth of more than 30% is a direct positive for port logistics and freight-forwarding businesses. Trade finance is a traditional business for Hong Kong banks, and an expansion in cross-border trade would generally boost demand for services such as letters of credit and factoring.

Risk: the AI cycle itself

The government spokesman said the AI-related investment boom and resilience in the global economy would continue to support Hong Kong's trade performance, but warned that the conflict in the Middle East, trade protection measures adopted by major economies and risks arising from the rapid expansion of global AI investment needed to be closely monitored. Some economists also believe that a slowdown in the AI investment cycle could pose a greater threat to mainland exports than trade restrictions imposed by other countries. As the current growth cycle is heavily concentrated in AI-related electronic products, with a sizeable portion driven by prices, three indicators may be worth watching: memory chip price trends, the new orders sub-index of the US ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index, and monthly changes in the scale of cross-border renminbi settlements.