Hong Kong Central financial district skyline aerial

The Hong Kong government's First Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (2026-2030), released on September 16, is not a blueprint without KPIs. The plan covers seven chapters, six areas and five major objectives, including 22 expected and binding key indicators. What is particularly noteworthy is that although the plan describes finance as Hong Kong's foundation and biggest strength, only two of the key indicators relate directly to finance — and neither contains a numerical target.

Finance among the 22 indicators

The plan consists of seven sections and 28 chapters, runs to about 60,000 words and was released on the same day as the 2026 Policy Address. In addition to the key indicators, a further 57 and 26 indicators are set out in columns and the main text respectively, bringing the total number of indicators in the five-year plan to 105.

The two indicators directly related to finance are "global financial centre", with Hong Kong ranked third globally as the benchmark, and "global cross-border wealth management centre", with first place globally as the benchmark. The 2030 target for both is to "strengthen its leading position globally". Both are aspirational indicators, with no quantified increase specified.

Other indicators in the same area are considerably more specific. Total local expenditure on innovation activities is expected to rise from 1.63 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 3 per cent in 2030. The Northern Metropolis' supply of developed land is the only binding indicator among the 14 indicators, with a target of 900 hectares from the 2026-27 to 2030-31 financial years — 7.5 times the 120 hectares targeted in the previous five-year period.

A government source said the large proportion of aspirational indicators reflected the fact that Hong Kong is a free economy whose performance is susceptible to external factors, meaning some indicators might not be achievable.

Using rankings as targets means that part of the plan's success or failure will depend on external assessments. In the latest Global Financial Centres Index, Hong Kong scored 756 points, five points behind top-ranked New York and one point behind second-placed London, while leading Singapore by only one point. Whether Hong Kong can "strengthen its leading position globally" will come down to differences of one or two points.

What the finance chapter says

The standalone chapter on the "international financial centre" is divided into five sections covering the strengthening of Hong Kong's global offshore renminbi hub, the optimisation of the stock and bond markets, the creation of a commodities trading ecosystem, the development of "finance+" and stronger financial risk prevention. Specific directions include:

  • Offshore renminbi: Establishing a liquidity backstop mechanism for Hong Kong's offshore renminbi market and seeking to include renminbi counters in Stock Connect. The government will also study the use of renminbi to pay government expenses in more suitable scenarios.
  • Wealth management: Providing quality services for sovereign wealth funds and family offices worldwide, improving the tax regimes for funds, single-family offices and carried interest, and expanding products such as alternative-asset funds and real estate investment trusts (REITs).
  • Risk management: Making use of multi-layered risk-transfer and risk-sharing mechanisms, including insurance-linked securities, captive insurers and dedicated shipping risk pools.
  • Financial connectivity: Expanding the channels and quotas of Stock Connect, Bond Connect, Wealth Management Connect and the Private Fund Connect.

Some commentators have questioned the plan's substance. One analysis said most of the measures mentioned were extensions of policies the government had already implemented or announced in recent years. The plan therefore appeared more like a consolidation of existing measures and did not offer a fundamental solution to deeper challenges such as rebuilding the valuation system for Hong Kong stocks.

Supporting measures rolled out

One week after the plan was released, the Securities and Futures Commission announced a strategic action agenda on September 23, following up on the plan's direction:

  • Southbound Stock Connect will include renminbi-counter trading, with implementation targeted before July 1 next year. The inclusion of REITs in the connectivity schemes will begin in the first half of next year.
  • In the short term, the SFC will promote the implementation of a T+1 settlement cycle and review the listing regime for specialist technology companies under Chapter 18C and the GEM listing rules.
  • Under "finance+", a new digital-asset licensing regime will be introduced in the short term, while a regulatory framework for tokenised investment products will be developed over the medium to long term.
  • In terms of regulation, technology including artificial intelligence will be used over the medium to long term in regulatory supervision, cybersecurity and anti-money-laundering monitoring systems.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing chairman Calvin Tai Ka-ching said he fully supported the agenda.

Who stands to benefit, who faces pressure

Initial assessments by foreign investment banks have been broadly positive. Goldman Sachs said the two policy documents could support HKEX's multi-asset strategy and raise the supply and liquidity of products in Hong Kong's market. JPMorgan said the measures would create development opportunities for wealth management, institutional banking and financial markets businesses.

At the same time, greater use of technology in supervision could increase licensed institutions' compliance-system spending, with smaller firms likely to face relatively greater cost pressure.

Watch list: what to look for over the next one to two years

  1. Whether the SFC's short-term measures are implemented on schedule: In addition to renminbi counters and the inclusion of REITs in the connectivity schemes, Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company and the SEHK Options Clearing House are expected to begin accepting Chinese government bonds as margin collateral in November this year.
  2. Whether the Policy Address adds figures for finance: Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said during the consultation period that the annual Policy Address would set more than 100 specific work indicators. Quantified financial targets may only become clear at this level.
  3. The Global Financial Centres Index ranking: This is the only yardstick for the financial indicators, while Hong Kong's score is just one point behind London and one point ahead of Singapore.
  4. The mid-term review: A government source said the plan would undergo a mid-term review. Whether the design of the indicators will be adjusted will be worth watching.
  5. The direction of green-finance support: The Green and Sustainable Finance Grant Scheme has been extended for three years to 2027. Whether it will be renewed or upgraded after its expiry will affect Hong Kong's competitiveness in attracting green-bond issuance.