Hector Retamal

Richard Yu Chengdong, chairman of Huawei's Terminal Business Group, said more than 90 million devices are running HarmonyOS 6 and HarmonyOS 7, adding that the company is considering gradually taking the operating system to global markets. He stressed, however, that the plan remains at an early stage, with no timetable or initial markets announced.

The devices include smartphones, personal computers and tablets, and Huawei expects the number to reach 100 million by the end of the year. Yu discussed the company's overseas strategy at an international media roundtable on September 29, before announcing the 90 million figure at the launch of the Mate 90 series on October 1.

24% in China, but just 5% globally

Data from Counterpoint Research showed that HarmonyOS accounted for 24% of smartphone sales in China in the second quarter of this year, ranking second behind Android at 58% and ahead of iOS at 18%. Its share in the first quarter was 19%.

Globally, HarmonyOS held only a 5% share during the same period, ranking third. Android accounted for 75% and iOS 20%. Huawei currently sells only several million smartphones a year outside China, suggesting that most of the 5% share comes from the Chinese market.

It is worth noting that the 90 million figure represents the cumulative number of devices running the relevant versions of the operating system, not the number of active users.

Completing the ecosystem loop in mainland China first

Ma Chao, a researcher at the Beijing Frontier Institute of Financial Regulatory Technology, said an operating system must first complete validation of the user, developer and app ecosystem loop in its home market before expanding overseas.

Huawei said the HarmonyOS ecosystem now has more than 450,000 downloadable apps and meta-services, 11 million registered developers worldwide and more than 23,000 app innovation partners. Hao Jiasheng, an associate professor at the School of Automation Engineering at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, said: "HarmonyOS has already become the world's third-largest mobile operating system. Its domestic ecosystem has moved from the introduction stage into a period of growth, laying the software foundation for Huawei's latest round of global expansion in its terminal business. This also means that Chinese operating systems will accelerate their international push."

Avoiding a head-on clash in the mainstream smartphone market

Android and iOS account for 95% of the global smartphone market. Starting from scratch to compete for users would offer a relatively poor return on investment, Ma said. In the short term, HarmonyOS is likely to enter overseas markets through high-barrier hardware sectors such as foldable phones, smart wearables, smart home products and Harmony Intelligent Mobility vehicles, using coordination across devices to drive adoption of the operating system.

Huawei said in August that it would conduct HarmonyOS trials in overseas markets where conditions were suitable. It is also studying a return to telecom operators' sales channels in markets including Europe.

This "from individual points to wider coverage" approach would avoid the need to build sales channels on a large scale. The downside is that these hardware categories are far smaller than smartphones, and it remains to be seen whether they can support a global ecosystem for an independent operating system.

Overseas developer support is the biggest hurdle

Ma said attracting overseas developers to complete native HarmonyOS adaptations in the short term would be the core challenge of the international expansion. Yu has also acknowledged that the biggest difficulty in developing an operating system lies in app development and ecosystem building.

The problem is a classic "chicken-and-egg" dilemma: without developers there are no apps, and without apps there are no users. Whether globally influential apps such as Instagram, TikTok, WhatsApp and Spotify will invest in developing native HarmonyOS versions will depend on how they assess the system's overseas potential. Public information reviewed for this report contained no clear statements from these apps.

Analysts say Huawei will need to offer overseas developers greater incentives, such as more favourable revenue-sharing arrangements, simpler development tools or joint marketing, if it is to build a sustainable app ecosystem in the coming years.

Geopolitical regulation: a structural constraint

Huawei has long faced stringent data security reviews in a number of overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the United States. As an operating system, HarmonyOS involves the processing of large volumes of user data. To enter overseas markets, it will have to demonstrate that data storage and processing comply with local privacy laws, such as the European Union's GDPR, and that there are no unauthorised channels for data transfers back to China.

Acceptance of Huawei is relatively higher in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, but these regions are also moving towards digital sovereignty legislation. Analysts say the real test is whether Huawei can establish a transparent governance framework recognised by regulators in multiple countries, rather than simply securing market access in individual countries. Moving too quickly could trigger further regulatory scrutiny, while excessive caution could mean missing the window of opportunity.

Three indicators to watch

  1. The number and quality of overseas developers: Whether HarmonyOS can raise its profile among the international developer community, and whether leading apps follow with adaptations, is expected to become clearer within six to 12 months.
  2. Overseas deliveries of Harmony Intelligent Mobility vehicles: If brands such as Aito and Luxeed achieve small-scale deliveries in Europe or the Middle East, the in-car operating system experience would become the most direct "advertisement".
  3. The direction of data security reviews in individual countries: New restrictions or compliance requirements targeting Huawei's operating system will be a key indicator of the pace of its global expansion.