Ternus’s debut puts foldable iPhone above HK$15,000 — sold out before launch?

Ternus's foldable iPhone debut: priced near laptop territory, with supply likely to be tight

Apple held its autumn product launch at Apple Park at 10am on September 9 US time (1am on September 10 Hong Kong time). It was the first major product launch hosted by new chief executive John Ternus since he succeeded Tim Cook on September 1, and had been widely viewed as his first major test in the role.

The headline product was Apple's first foldable-screen iPhone, long rumoured under the codenames "Fold" or "Ultra". Some overseas media, including 9to5Mac, had speculated that its official name could be "iPhone Duo", but Apple had not confirmed any name before the launch. Reports therefore remained speculative, and the actual outcome of the launch was still awaited. Based on supply chain sources and earlier forecasts by several research firms, the device was expected to feature a 7.6-inch to 7.8-inch display when unfolded, an outer screen with interactive functions, Apple Pencil support, and a first-generation A20 Pro chip built using TSMC's 2nm process.

Priced close to laptop levels

Market estimates for the foldable iPhone have been broadly consistent. Several research firms, including TrendForce, Fubon Research and TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, have forecast a starting price of more than US$2,000, with some configurations potentially exceeding US$2,500 to US$3,000. At US$2,000, that would be about RMB14,200 or HK$15,600, based on the Hong Kong dollar's long-standing exchange rate of around 7.8 to the US dollar. The price would put the device well above most flagship smartphones and within the range of a lightweight laptop.

The pricing strategy amounts to a targeted selection of high-end customers. Apple may not be trying to meet mass-market demand for a larger screen, but instead seeking to establish a new status symbol among affluent consumers. If successful, the device could become one of Apple's highest-margin products. But a poor reception could directly damage the brand's premium positioning.

It is also worth noting that, according to several technology media outlets and Apple supply chain sources, the standard iPhone 18 was also absent from the launch. The market expected it to arrive in spring 2027 alongside the iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2. With the Pro series and foldable model carrying the event, Apple's product strategy this year was clearly tilted towards a small number of higher-priced, higher-margin models. The decision to abandon the middle ground and target the top end is unusual in the history of the iPhone.

The biggest question is whether supply can match the ambition

The key challenges for foldable phones have long been hinge technology and screen durability. Apple's stringent quality-control requirements, combined with the fact that TSMC's 2nm process is still ramping up, have led many observers to expect tight initial supplies of the foldable iPhone. However, estimates vary considerably over how severe the shortage could be. Research firm IDC forecast earlier this month that Apple could ship more than 10 million units in the first year and capture about 40 per cent of global foldable-phone shipments in 2027. Fubon Research, meanwhile, estimated shipments of about 5.4 million units in 2026. In other words, there is a significant gap between first-year targets ranging from millions to tens of millions of units and the extremely conservative claim circulating online that initial daily production could be only a few hundred units. This article was unable to find a reliable original source for the specific "hundreds of units" figure, which should therefore be treated as unverified market rumour rather than an official or formal supply chain disclosure (see "Fact check" below).

What analysts generally agree on is that Apple will initially adopt a strategy of limited sales followed by a gradual increase in output. There are two main reasons. First, it takes time to improve foldable-screen yields, and Apple has traditionally been reluctant to mass-produce technology before it is sufficiently mature. Second, the 2nm process is significantly more expensive than the previous-generation 3nm technology. With wafer capacity also fiercely contested worldwide, even Apple's preferential access to supply would come at a higher production cost.

Ternus's calculation: using a form-factor revolution to start a new upgrade cycle

Ternus oversaw Apple's supply chain and hardware engineering for years and was regarded as one of the company's most pragmatic executives, with a deep understanding of manufacturing. His decision to bet on a foldable screen in his first month as chief executive reflects Apple's anxiety over a plateau in smartphone shipments. Annual cosmetic changes to conventional phones have become less effective at encouraging users to upgrade, leaving Apple in need of a "form-factor revolution" to open a new hardware cycle.

At the same time, dropping the standard iPhone 18 from the launch represents an aggressive tactical contraction. As consumer conditions weaken overall, concentrating resources on a small number of high-margin hit products could theoretically help preserve headline financial results more effectively than a broad product rollout. But it also creates risks. If mainstream consumers are pushed out of the new iPhone range, could the lack of an intermediate model drive them towards competitors? This is particularly relevant in lower- and mid-range markets, where Android manufacturers are eroding Apple's existing base with faster product cycles and lower prices.

However optimistic IDC's forecast of 10 million units in the first year and a 40 per cent share in 2027 may be, it is based on projections of long-term penetration rather than a reality that can be delivered in the first quarter after launch. In the short term, the foldable iPhone is unlikely to become a major contributor to Apple's revenue. It is more likely to serve as a "totem" demonstrating the company's manufacturing capabilities and anchoring its image at the forefront of technology.

Ternus's first major test has only just begun. The foldable iPhone certainly creates a visual impact, but Apple's most difficult task is not getting people to see it. It is overcoming yield and cost constraints and getting the product from the launch stage into consumers' hands.

What to watch next

• Hinge patents and the pace of technological development: whether Apple can overcome existing patent barriers in foldable screens and develop an independently innovative structure
• TSMC's 2nm mass-production yields and delivery schedule: these will directly affect supplies of the A20 Pro chip and the room for manoeuvre in final pricing
• The return strategy for the standard iPhone range: if it remains absent, mid-range market share could flow to Android more quickly
• Changes in the foldable-screen panel supply chain: whether LG Display or BOE can use the opportunity to enter Apple's core supply chain