22,000 humanoid robots shipped in six months — but how many are actually working?

Market research firm Counterpoint Research estimates that more than 22,000 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide in the first half of 2026, an increase of nearly 300 per cent year on year. However, another set of figures released recently suggests that many of these robots may not actually be doing work.

According to a Reuters report on Monday (September 21), the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) recorded about 7,000 humanoid robots sold worldwide in 2025. IFR secretary-general Susanne Bieller said many had not been deployed in production, but were instead bought by research institutions and companies to collect data and improve AI models. She said carmakers were among the earlier adopters, although each manufacturer typically had only single-digit numbers of humanoid robots being tested in its plants, occasionally reaching double digits. The IFR will release its full 2025 data on industrial and service robots on September 24.

The IFR uses a specific definition of humanoid robots: machines with a human-like appearance that can operate autonomously in environments designed for people, although they do not necessarily need to have legs. Its figures cover industrial and professional service applications only, excluding consumer and military models; medical robots are counted separately. By comparison, about 542,000 traditional industrial robots were newly installed worldwide in 2024, while around 199,000 service robots were sold.

Dispute over use: ‘Data collection’ is only part of the picture

Counterpoint’s breakdown by application shows that humanoid robots used for entertainment and performances, and those used for data production and research, together still accounted for more than 60 per cent of shipments, although their combined share had fallen slightly from earlier levels. The shares of intelligent manufacturing and warehousing and logistics rose to 13 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. In other words, robots used for data collection made up only part of that more-than-60-per-cent group, not all of it. Another research firm, Smart Analytics Global (SAG), has a different view. Forbes quoted SAG as saying that industrial and commercial applications accounted for more than 70 per cent.

Three organisations, three sets of figures

For the same six-month period, the figures compiled by different organisations do not match:

• Counterpoint: more than 22,000 worldwide; AgiBot accounted for about 9,700 (more than 43 per cent), while Unitree Robotics accounted for more than 7,000 (31 per cent).
• SAG: about 19,100 worldwide, up 272 per cent from 5,100 a year earlier; AgiBot accounted for about 8,400 (44 per cent), and Unitree about 5,900 (31 per cent).
• China Humanoid Robot Industry Alliance: Chinese manufacturers alone had shipped more than 30,000, according to Forbes.

Some of the discrepancy stems from how “shipments” are defined — for example, whether the count includes only robots delivered to paying commercial customers or also those sent to research laboratories and demonstration projects. AgiBot’s product line also includes the wheeled G-series, making comparisons between organisations more difficult.

Both organisations’ figures show that Chinese manufacturers dominate the market. Counterpoint’s top five were all Chinese companies: AgiBot, Unitree Robotics, Galbot, UBTECH Robotics (9880.HK) and Leju Robot, together accounting for 86 per cent of shipments. AgiBot and Unitree alone accounted for about three-quarters.

Falling costs broaden the pool of buyers

Chinese manufacturers are drawing on the electrical and mechanical supply chains in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta to accelerate the localisation of key components, including frameless torque motors, planetary roller screws and harmonic reducers, bringing down robot prices. BofA Global Research estimates that the bill of materials for a China-made humanoid robot was about US$35,000 in 2025, compared with about US$90,000 to US$100,000 for Western pilot-production models. It expects the material cost of Chinese models to fall below US$17,000 by 2030. On the market, Unitree’s G1 is priced at about US$13,500. Lower prices are enabling universities and research institutions to buy the robots in batches.

Wide gap in full-year forecasts

Forecasts for the whole of 2026 vary widely. Counterpoint expects full-year shipments to exceed 50,000, about 2.1 times last year’s figure. SAG forecasts nearly 60,000, while BofA expects 90,000 in 2026, rising to 1.2 million by 2030. Based on Counterpoint’s 22,000-plus shipments in the first half, reaching BofA’s 90,000 forecast would require about 68,000 units to be shipped in the second half — roughly three times the first-half figure. BofA estimates that about 20,000 humanoid robots were shipped in 2025, compared with the IFR’s 7,000, which covers industrial and professional service applications only. The figures use different definitions and should not be compared directly.

What to watch next

• Upstream orders: After robot manufacturers announce delivery plans involving hundreds or thousands of units, do capacity utilisation rates at reducer and servo-system suppliers rise accordingly? This could help test how much substance there is behind the reported shipment figures.
• Paying customers: Beyond data collection, will high-risk applications such as nuclear power maintenance and chemical plant inspections translate into actual corporate contracts?
• Battery life: Battery endurance remains one of the factors limiting the range of robot operations.